Hold on to the Trump Card
By ｜ Kolas Yotaka
On the last day of February 2025, marking the three-year anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war, both sides had suffered heavy casualties, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was exhausted. Nevertheless, he accepted the invitation of the U.S. President and flew to the White House to explore the possibility of a ceasefire, hoping to sign a favorable truce agreement involving all three parties. Unexpectedly, the warm up press conference before the signing event, which was was about 50 minutes long, went off-script in the last 10 minutes. Zelensky argued that the agreement only confirmed the rights of the U.S. to mine rare earth elements in Ukraine but did not provide any security guarantees for Ukraine. He warned the U.S. against placing excessive trust in Russia, which led to a verbal confrontation.
In addition to Trump's anger, the U.S. Vice President followed suit, and far-right media reporters consistently launched attacks on Zelensky, asking questions like, "Why aren't you wearing a suit?"—turning the entire conversation into a nearly irreparable diplomatic disaster. The warm-up failed, and the main event could not even take place. Ultimately, the two countries did not complete the signing, and Trump was unable to deliver on his pre-election promise to voters to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine that day, leading to a sour ending for both sides. After Zelensky left the White House, Secretary of State Rubio continued to criticize him in the media, stating that Zelensky should apologize to the United States.
The moment that left the deepest impression on me during the entire confrontation was this one:
Trump: “You're not in a good position. You don't have the cards right now. With us, you start having cards.”
Zelensky: "I'm not playing cards.”
Trump: “You don't have the cards. But once we sign that deal, you're in a much better position, but you're not acting at all thankful.”
Trump wants to go all in with the "rare earth card," but Zelensky refuses to play along. This scene was striking to me; I cannot imagine what Trump would want to see if Taiwan were ever forced to sit at the card table. What kind of cards would Trump expect Taiwan to play?
Just four days after this astonishing presidential argument unfolded, while the world was still in shock, President Trump played his next card by inviting TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei to jointly announce that TSMC would increase its investment in the U.S. by $100 billion (NT$3.3 trillion). Trump stated that this move would allow the U.S. to capture a share of TSMC's global chip market, with America poised to get at least 40% of the global semiconductor market, fulfilling his campaign promises of "America First” and "Made in America.”
The single focus of Trump's aggressive strategy is China. To suppress China, he needs two cards: the "rare earth card" and the "chip card." Once he holds both cards, regardless of how other players like Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran respond, the U.S. can confidently go all in for a big win. To obtain the "rare earth card," he can negotiate with Russia in the presence of Ukraine, applying pressure on Ukraine to bring them to the negotiating table. To secure the "chip card," he threatens to impose a 25% tax in front of Taiwan and demands that TSMC transfer technology to Intel. Sure enough, TSMC then announces an increased investment in the U.S.
The world as a game of cards
At the press conference in March regarding TSMC's increased investment in the United States, Trump was asked by a reporter:
“Could this minimize the impact to the US with chips should China decide to isolate Taiwan or China decides to take Taiwan?”
Trump responded:
“I can’t say “minimize.” That would be a catastrophic event, obviously. But it will at least give us a position where we have — in this very, very important business, we would have a very big part of it in the United States. So, it would have a big impact if something should happen with Taiwan.”
The U.S. is playing its cards, but Taiwan does not want to be left out in the cold. Zelensky stated that he is a wartime president, and he is not here to play games. He wants to remind the world that Russia has a long history of violations and will not adhere to agreements. If the U.S. only provides security guarantees to acquire rare earths, just to ensure it has the “good cards” to go all in with other players, it would not be fair to Ukraine. Taiwan knows that it has a substantial trade surplus with the United States and understands that Trump will be eager to address the trade imbalance. However, it has also publicly stated that imposing unequal tariffs on Taiwanese chips is unfair. But no matter how unfair it is, it is clear that the U.S., based on "national security considerations" and "national interests," will employ more aggressive means to compete for control over the global high-end chip supply chain. Once it applies economic pressure to secure these two cards while avoiding security commitments, the U.S. will be free to battle with China. In such a scenario, both Ukraine and Taiwan may find themselves left "holding the bag."
Taiwan must never be left out in the cold. If there are no absolute security guarantees from the United States, easily arranging for TSMC to move to the U.S. will incur higher costs, and there is a risk of technology loss, resulting in the loss of a strong asset. Therefore, it is essential to hold two strong cards.
Dual-track approach: hold on to the trump card.
According to the analysis of war historian and chip expert Chris Miller, neither China nor the United States can quickly catch up to Taiwan's chip manufacturing technology. Moreover, Taiwan's complete semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem is unique in the world and cannot be replicated by other countries in a short time. Here, it’s not just about technology and talent; the unique labor culture and the distinct interpersonal connections in Taiwan help retain a large workforce of engineers to serve their country.
The Taiwanese government should hold two cards: on one hand, it can release limited production capacity to the United States; on the other hand, it should continue to invest heavily in the domestic semiconductor industry, doubling efforts to cultivate talent and stabilize water and electricity supplies. By building a more robust semiconductor ecosystem and holding the leading-edge technology of the "Silicon Shield" firmly in hand, Taiwan can ensure that it does not lose.
In addition to Trump's anger, the U.S. Vice President followed suit, and far-right media reporters consistently launched attacks on Zelensky, asking questions like, "Why aren't you wearing a suit?"—turning the entire conversation into a nearly irreparable diplomatic disaster. The warm-up failed, and the main event could not even take place. Ultimately, the two countries did not complete the signing, and Trump was unable to deliver on his pre-election promise to voters to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine that day, leading to a sour ending for both sides. After Zelensky left the White House, Secretary of State Rubio continued to criticize him in the media, stating that Zelensky should apologize to the United States.
The moment that left the deepest impression on me during the entire confrontation was this one:
Trump: “You're not in a good position. You don't have the cards right now. With us, you start having cards.”
Zelensky: "I'm not playing cards.”
Trump: “You don't have the cards. But once we sign that deal, you're in a much better position, but you're not acting at all thankful.”
Trump wants to go all in with the "rare earth card," but Zelensky refuses to play along. This scene was striking to me; I cannot imagine what Trump would want to see if Taiwan were ever forced to sit at the card table. What kind of cards would Trump expect Taiwan to play?
Just four days after this astonishing presidential argument unfolded, while the world was still in shock, President Trump played his next card by inviting TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei to jointly announce that TSMC would increase its investment in the U.S. by $100 billion (NT$3.3 trillion). Trump stated that this move would allow the U.S. to capture a share of TSMC's global chip market, with America poised to get at least 40% of the global semiconductor market, fulfilling his campaign promises of "America First” and "Made in America.”
The single focus of Trump's aggressive strategy is China. To suppress China, he needs two cards: the "rare earth card" and the "chip card." Once he holds both cards, regardless of how other players like Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran respond, the U.S. can confidently go all in for a big win. To obtain the "rare earth card," he can negotiate with Russia in the presence of Ukraine, applying pressure on Ukraine to bring them to the negotiating table. To secure the "chip card," he threatens to impose a 25% tax in front of Taiwan and demands that TSMC transfer technology to Intel. Sure enough, TSMC then announces an increased investment in the U.S.
The world as a game of cards
At the press conference in March regarding TSMC's increased investment in the United States, Trump was asked by a reporter:
“Could this minimize the impact to the US with chips should China decide to isolate Taiwan or China decides to take Taiwan?”
Trump responded:
“I can’t say “minimize.” That would be a catastrophic event, obviously. But it will at least give us a position where we have — in this very, very important business, we would have a very big part of it in the United States. So, it would have a big impact if something should happen with Taiwan.”
The U.S. is playing its cards, but Taiwan does not want to be left out in the cold. Zelensky stated that he is a wartime president, and he is not here to play games. He wants to remind the world that Russia has a long history of violations and will not adhere to agreements. If the U.S. only provides security guarantees to acquire rare earths, just to ensure it has the “good cards” to go all in with other players, it would not be fair to Ukraine. Taiwan knows that it has a substantial trade surplus with the United States and understands that Trump will be eager to address the trade imbalance. However, it has also publicly stated that imposing unequal tariffs on Taiwanese chips is unfair. But no matter how unfair it is, it is clear that the U.S., based on "national security considerations" and "national interests," will employ more aggressive means to compete for control over the global high-end chip supply chain. Once it applies economic pressure to secure these two cards while avoiding security commitments, the U.S. will be free to battle with China. In such a scenario, both Ukraine and Taiwan may find themselves left "holding the bag."
Taiwan must never be left out in the cold. If there are no absolute security guarantees from the United States, easily arranging for TSMC to move to the U.S. will incur higher costs, and there is a risk of technology loss, resulting in the loss of a strong asset. Therefore, it is essential to hold two strong cards.
Dual-track approach: hold on to the trump card.
According to the analysis of war historian and chip expert Chris Miller, neither China nor the United States can quickly catch up to Taiwan's chip manufacturing technology. Moreover, Taiwan's complete semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem is unique in the world and cannot be replicated by other countries in a short time. Here, it’s not just about technology and talent; the unique labor culture and the distinct interpersonal connections in Taiwan help retain a large workforce of engineers to serve their country.
The Taiwanese government should hold two cards: on one hand, it can release limited production capacity to the United States; on the other hand, it should continue to invest heavily in the domestic semiconductor industry, doubling efforts to cultivate talent and stabilize water and electricity supplies. By building a more robust semiconductor ecosystem and holding the leading-edge technology of the "Silicon Shield" firmly in hand, Taiwan can ensure that it does not lose.
成為台灣人間魚詩社文創協會 贊助會員
台灣人間魚詩社文創協會為依法設立、非以營利為目的之社會團體。以推廣現代詩、文學及其它藝術創作，推動文化創意產業發展為宗旨。
本會推動及執行任務以現代詩為主體，詩文創作為核心，透過出版、網路及多媒體影音的形式，讓詩文創作深入現代社會生活，增進大眾對文學及創作的興趣，豐富社會心靈。
贊助用途：
•支持協會運作及詩文創作出版
• 舉辦金像詩獎、多媒體跨界影像
• 文學、文化行動與國際推廣
贊助帳號：第一銀行 (007) 大安分行 168-10-002842 社團法人台灣人間魚詩社文創協會
台灣人間魚詩社文創協會為依法設立、非以營利為目的之社會團體。以推廣現代詩、文學及其它藝術創作，推動文化創意產業發展為宗旨。
本會推動及執行任務以現代詩為主體，詩文創作為核心，透過出版、網路及多媒體影音的形式，讓詩文創作深入現代社會生活，增進大眾對文學及創作的興趣，豐富社會心靈。
贊助用途：
•支持協會運作及詩文創作出版
• 舉辦金像詩獎、多媒體跨界影像
• 文學、文化行動與國際推廣
贊助帳號：第一銀行 (007) 大安分行 168-10-002842 社團法人台灣人間魚詩社文創協會
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