Taiwan Cannot Lose:
​A Resilience Forged by Uncertainty

By ｜ Kolas Yotaka

​“All of the great leaders have had one characteristic in common: it was the willingness to confront unequivocally the major anxiety of their people in their time. This, and not much else, is the essence of leadership.”

— John Kenneth Galbraith, The Age of Uncertainty


On March 3, 2025, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) Chairman C.C. Wei appeared at the White House alongside U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and President Donald Trump to announce a significant investment: TSMC would inject an additional $100 billion USD (approximately NT$3 trillion) into its U.S. operations. To put this in perspective, NT$3 trillion is equivalent to Taiwan's entire annual government budget.

However, just a month later, on April 2, Trump announced a 32% tariff on imports from countries with trade surpluses with the U.S., including Taiwan. The abrupt policy shift stunned Taiwan's business, political, and media sectors. Markets crashed, and the public was overtaken by shock and a sense of betrayal—like being coldly rejected after extending goodwill.
Sachio Semmoto, President of the J apanese venture group D-POPS, stands at their
high-rise headquarters in S hibuya, gazing out over the city.
Engulfed by Uncertainty

Over the past year, both Taiwan and the United States have undergone political transitions, each electing new presidents and legislatures. With Taiwan’s deep ties to the U.S., this wave of political change on both sides has contributed to a heightened sense of uncertainty.

Taiwan’s political landscape has grown increasingly unstable. In parliament, opposition parties have repeatedly blocked the ruling party’s budget and policy proposals. The resulting clashes have intensified to a level the public has never seen since the start of direct presidential elections in 1996 — deepening the sense ofuncertainty.

Simultaneously, the U.S. has elected a president known for his unorthodox approach. His administration's frustration with China has spilled over into aggressive trade policies affecting other nations, destabilizing the global economy. Supply chains are being restructured, currencies are fluctuating, and international conflicts in economics, defense, and diplomacy are intensifying.

Growing doubts have emerged: Could U.S.–China tensions trigger conflict in the Taiwan Strait? Could the unresolved war in Ukraine weaken America's commitment to Taiwan's security? These lingering questions have only deepened Taiwan’s sense of uncertainty.

Amid both political and economic instability, the one source of near-universal consensus in Taiwan—TSMC—announced in March that it would significantly expand its U.S. investment. The news triggered even greater national anxiety. TSMC, long hailed as the“pride of Taiwan,”a company born and raised on the island, suddenly seemed to be abandoning it. Some even accused Chairman C.C. Wei of“selling out the country.”A wave of uncertainty swept across the nation—more powerful than the turbulent waters of the Taiwan Strait.

Psychologists commonly observe that in times of uncertainty, people respond by seeking greater control. In Taiwan, waves of criticism accused the government of “letting go of TSMC,”as if simply keeping the company anchored more tightly at home could solve all the nation’s problems.

A man often referred to as a “Sage of Management”in Japan’s ICT industry, Sachio Semmoto offered a calm perspective:

“I think working with the U.S. is a good solution. Without cooperation, TSMC has no future. So regardless of U.S. policies — whether you’re dealing with good people or not — you still have to engage. This isn’t the best situation overall, but Wei’s response is reasonable and necessary under the circumstances.”



Coexisting with Uncertainty

Semmoto grew up in postwar Japan, in a poor family, during a time when the country was still recovering from devastation. He built his career from scratch and lived through the U.S.–Japan trade war, stock market crashes, and the collapse of Japan’s asset bubble.

He sees tariffs as having become a hallmark of Trump’s political brand — even though, to him, they’re one of the oldest and most outdated tools in the business playbook.

“Generally speaking, that kind of tariff policy is extremely old-fashioned — it’s not a new method, and it doesn’t involve any new technology. Look at history: people were doing this 200 years ago. And historically, those policies failed.

That’s why many Japanese people don’t like Mr. Trump — not just because of his past scandals and personal conduct, but also because of the policies he’s implemented as president. The tariff war has become a symbol of his politics.”

The impact of Trump’s tariffs has already been felt in Japan. In the first quarter, Japan’s GDP contracted — the first shrinkage in a year, and worse than expected. The government forecasts at least a 0.78% drop in GDP for the coming year, with the hardest hit sector being the auto industry, which relies heavily on exports to the U.S.

With decades of experience navigating the Japanese and American markets, Semmoto believes efforts to revive the U.S. economy through tariffs and currency manipulation are fundamentally flawed.

“I think this kind of short-sighted policy simply won’t work. Sure, it can create some short-term impact, but it offers no long-term solution — not for the U.S., not for Japan.

In fact, it’s not Japan that ends up paying these tariffs. It’s American citizens — American consumers are the ones footing the bill.”

Semmoto doesn’t hesitate to make a bold prediction: Trump’s tariff policy won’t last more than six months.

“In the long run, it’s not just Japanese consumers who will be affected — American consumers will feel it too. Maybe in six months, they’ll start to realize how these policies are harming their daily lives and jobs. That’s why I think Mr. Trump will change course. Maybe five or six months from now, when he stops getting broad public support in the U.S. and needs to win the next election, right?”

Trump’s tariff war began with China, driven by his belief that the global supply chain is fundamentally unreliable. His trade adviser, Peter Navarro, even told CNBC that “China is a parasite dependent on exports.”

Trump often likened his tariff policy to performing surgery — curing a sick America by cutting out the parasite. Countries complicit in helping China evade restrictions — in Trump’s eyes, the “hosts” — wouldn’t be spared. He repeatedly told voters he would block China from becoming the U.S.’s sole buyer and seller, and prevent it from hollowing out the American economy.

But Semmoto believes Trump knows exactly what he’s doing.

“Have you noticed Mr. Trump has never personally criticized President Xi? Strange, isn’t it? All of Trump’s top officials attack China harshly, but Trump himself never directly targets Xi Jinping. My point is: Trump will reach some kind of compromise with Xi. He’ll speak to this authoritarian leader directly. And Xi, of course, isn’t stupid — I think he’s also looking for a deal.”



The Threat of Becoming a Bargaining Chip

For Taiwan, the greatest danger is being treated as a bargaining chip in U.S.–China negotiations — a fear Japan shares as well. In such uncertain times, strong leadership becomes all the more vital.

In Semmoto’s view, Japan’s current leaders are not equipped to navigate this uncertainty. Despite his own boldness in business, when it comes to politics, Semmoto believes in an older model of leadership — one that is charismatic and decisive.

“I don’t know Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru personally. He’s not a bad person — I think he’s good. But he lacks natural charisma. He doesn’t have the kind of presence that past prime ministers like Tanaka Kakuei or Ikeda Hayato had.

We just don’t have a strong leader right now, and that’s unfortunate for Japan. Ishiba is doing an average job — maybe he’d be the right person in stable times. But for a historic moment like this, he may not be the leader we need.”

Semmoto believes Ishiba’s administration won’t last. But that raises the more urgent question: how can Taiwan navigate this historic moment?

"Neither Japan nor Taiwan has that kind of leadership right now," he says.

With longstanding ties in both U.S. and Japanese political and business circles, Semmoto has built a broad network over many years. He has watched multiple administrations rise and fall in Tokyo and Washington — and closely observed their dealings with China.

His takeaway: regardless of whether you have strong leadership, there’s one thing any government, entrepreneur, or individual can do -- stop complaining, face reality, and don’t run away.

“We shouldn’t just respond passively or throw criticism at Mr. Trump,” he says.

“Instead, we should find a way to turn his behavior into an opportunity for survival.”

Semmoto believes the key is to stop resisting reality and instead adapt to it. If existing systems can’t cope, then it’s time to change them. Nations and businesses must treat this global upheaval like a full-body checkup — identifying what isn’t working and correcting it.

“If you look at Japan’s system, it’s rigid and somewhat chaotic. It’s not open enough — it’s overly protective. Agriculture is a good example. So we need to use Mr. Trump’s policies as a catalyst to reform our outdated systems. We should approach this proactively, not passively. We need to accept reality and act on it.”

Being proactive, he insists, is the only viable path.

Sachio Semmoto (left) is in terviewed at his S hibuya office b y guest editor-in-chief Kolas Yotaka (right).
Facing Reality with Courage


“This may not be the most favorable situation,” Semmoto says, “but we Japanese must seize this moment as a wake-up call — a chance to fix long-standing problems. That’s the approach I would take.”

His message: don’t waste time lamenting difficult conditions. Recognize them, and respond constructively.


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Semiconductors: Weapons Against Uncertainty

To confront uncertainty, Semmoto believes Taiwan must remain flexible. It should not place all its eggs in one basket, and should view TSMC’s expansion in the U.S. not as abandonment, but as strategic adaptation. Taiwan still holds immense potential — and Semmoto, who witnessed Japan’s own boom and bust, sees the parallels.

“Semiconductors are going to shape the entire world. In the 1990s, semiconductors didn’t have the dominance they do now. Back then, the U.S. and Japan were both leaders. But starting in the ’90s, the U.S. targeted Japan’s semiconductor industry. Politically, we gave in. U.S. policy completely destroyed Japan’s domestic sector. We surrendered — and gave up on developing semiconductors in Japan. That’s how Intel and Texas Instruments took the lead.”

Semmoto is convinced: in the 21st century, semiconductors are the new oil — and Taiwan has them.

“If you look at the past 200 years, starting with the Industrial Revolution in Britain, one resource controlled the world: oil. Oil was in everything — plastic bottles, machines — and that’s what made the U.S., the U.K., and even the Arab world global powers.

But about five or six years ago, everything changed. The AI revolution began, and we are only at its beginning. In this new era, the essential resource isn’t oil — it’s semiconductors.”

In early February 2025, China’s AI company DeepSeek released a chatbot that rattled global stock markets. Until then, the U.S.'s OpenAI and its flagship ChatGPT had dominated the AI space. But DeepSeek’s energy-efficient, high-performance model upended assumptions — a clear signal that the U.S.-led AI industry could no longer take its dominance for granted.

Since 2015, China has pursued a 30-year industrial revitalization plan: Made in China 2025. The three-stage strategy aims to make China the world’s leading tech power by 2045. As it enters the next phase, Beijing is reportedly planning to upgrade the initiative under a new name — Made in China 2.0. The question for Taiwan: could this plan ultimately jeopardize its existence?

“Fundamentally, it won’t succeed,” Semmoto says. “Innovation and new technologies only emerge in free markets. Entrepreneurial spirit doesn’t grow in authoritarian systems. China doesn’t have democracy or a free market. Look at Jack Ma — he fled to Japan. He’s a Chinese entrepreneur, right? Creativity and innovation require freedom. Without it, you don’t get real innovation.”



A Trusted Partner in Uncertain Times: Japan

In 2024, Taiwan's export rankings show China as its largest trading partner (31.7%), followed by the United States (23.4%). But with the U.S. and China locked in a fierce trade war, Taiwan — highly dependent on both markets — finds itself caught in an increasingly volatile and unpredictable environment. What it needs most now is certainty and reliable allies.

“Thanks to semiconductors, Taiwan has become a global leader — that’s indisputable,” Semmoto says. “It also sits in an extremely sensitive position in Asia, between China and the U.S. So Taiwan needs good friends — democratic countries with fair trade systems and no corruption. And frankly, it may only have one neighbor that fits that bill: Japan.”

For Semmoto, semiconductors are not only the foundation of Taiwan’s current strength but also the anchor for stronger regional partnerships. Taiwan and Japan, he argues, must support one another.

“Of course, TSMC also relies on Japan for semiconductor equipment — from companies like Tokyo Electron, for example. We have to coexist. Even if Japan has fallen behind in some areas, many of the key peripheral technologies that support semiconductor development are still made in Japan. So Taiwan needs Japan, and Japan needs Taiwan.”

Tokyo Electron is Japan’s largest and the world’s third-largest supplier of semiconductor equipment. It’s also a major equipment provider for TSMC. In 2022, the company invested $2.1 billion NTD in Taiwan’s Southern Taiwan Science Park (STSP), establishing a major operations center in Tainan. The center officially opened in late 2024 and has been actively recruiting local talent.

“I tell Japanese people we need to pay more attention to Taiwan. Yes, China is important, but strategically, Taiwan’s position is far more crucial than most Japanese people realize. This is why the relationship between Japan and Taiwan is so important. In fact, I think Taiwan, Japan, and the U.S. can form a powerful alliance.”



An Uncertain Era and Kazuo Inamori’s Bold Gamble

“I’m the only person who worked alongside him for 15 years, just one meter apart every day. Many publishers have asked me to write the real story of Kazuo Inamori.”

Semmoto smiles as he recalls his old friend. In Taiwan, anyone with an interest in business or management philosophy has likely heard of Kazuo Inamori — often referred to as Japan’s “saint of management.” He is most famous for developing the “Amoeba Management” model, in which large organizations are divided into small, semi-autonomous groups responsible for their own profits and decision-making. Each unit strives to maximize its own efficiency, and together they lift the entire company.

Inamori founded Kyocera, a major ceramics and electronics company, in 1959. But what’s less known is that Japan’s second-largest telecom company, KDDI, was also born from a collaboration between Inamori and Semmoto — a venture inspired and guided by Semmoto himself.

“I met him about forty years ago, when I was the general manager at NTT, which was then a state-run telecom monopoly. I was head of the engineering division. One day, I was invited to give a lecture at the Kyoto Chamber of Commerce. About thirty young CEOs were there, including the then-president of Kyocera, Kazuo Inamori.”

“He came up afterwards and said he was impressed by my talk. He asked me, ‘What new businesses do you think have potential?’ I told him, ‘You shouldn’t limit yourself to fine ceramics. You need to think bigger — to consider national-scale industries with clear direction.’ When he asked what I meant, I said, ‘You should found a new company to compete with NTT. You have a strong management philosophy. And I understand both telecom and business strategy.”

This little-known history reveals that while many believe Inamori was the founder of KDDI, the idea and initiative came from Semmoto.

“At the time, he knew nothing about telecom. But compared to ceramics, telecom was a much larger market. He had the management expertise I needed — unlike a state-run monopoly, which doesn’t really require good management. There’s no competition, your customers are just there. So I told him, ‘Let me bring the business model, and you bring the management principles. Together we could create a national leader, not just a Kyoto company.’ But I said we’d need at least a billion U.S. dollars to launch it.”

Most people thought they would fail. Few believed they could succeed. But both Inamori and Semmoto shared a rare ability: the willingness to live with uncertainty — and act anyway. Semmoto’s guiding principle was simple: serve ordinary people.

“We must think about the ordinary people. They’re not wealthy. My father worked in a very small company, a typical small or medium-sized enterprise. We were relatively poor when I was young. So I’ve always cared about people like that — the working class. I wanted to give them access to affordable phones, not just the rich. I wanted people like my own family to be able to afford long-distance calls. So yes, our second priority was to create a company that could offer better service to the broader public.”



Enduring Uncertainty, Embracing Risk

“A lot of people have good ideas and solid business plans. But I’ll tell you, 99% of them — especially smart intellectuals — overanalyze. They’ll spend six months studying, calculating, and in the end they’ll say: ‘It’s too risky.’ They won’t move forward.”

“But even if you’re only 10% confident in your idea — if it’s a good service or a good business, if it will help society, especially help the poor — then just do it. Take action now. Don’t wait until tomorrow.”

During the years of building KDDI with Inamori, Semmoto started a daily exercise routine to build stamina. He had been physically frail before 40, focused entirely on books. But entrepreneurship, he realized, demands physical endurance. Travel demands it too. Even today, he maintains his fitness with daily one-hour runs and strength training — and insists on flying economy wherever he goes.

“Your leadership is only as good as how long you can keep traveling.”

Whenever he speaks to students, Semmoto encourages them to go see the world.

“Don’t just spend money drinking in Shinjuku. Go explore.”

In uncertain times, fresh knowledge is the only remedy for paralyzing anxiety. For Semmoto, travel is the secret to discovering new possibilities.

“Travel always brings new, unexpected rewards. You may be good with computers or smartphones — but that only gives you 1% of what you need to know. When you travel, you meet people face to face, talk, walk with them. Every time, you discover something you never imagined.”

What’s true for people, Semmoto believes, is also true for nations: to weather an uncertain era, you need new perspectives — and new friends.
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