Tariffs as Weapons:
The New Battlefield of Global Power

By ｜ Kolas Yotaka

Geoeconomics and the Strategic Logic Behind America’s Economic Warfare

In 2016, Robert Blackwill, former Deputy National Security Advisor under President George W. Bush, and scholar Jennifer Harris co-authored the influential book "War by Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft". They argued that for over two millennia, analyses of national defense strategies have neglected the economic dimension. Even Sun Tzu, the ancient Chinese military strategist, overlooked economic factors. Blackwill and Harris formally define "geoeconomics" as the use of economic instruments to achieve national security objectives.



Economic Measures as Alternatives to Military Action: Taiwan on the Frontline of a Global Geoeconomic Conflict

When a nation recognizes its military shortcomings, it may resort to economic means to secure victory. The authors cite the 1803 Louisiana Purchase as an example: Facing a weakened army, U.S. President Thomas Jefferson opted to buy 828,000 square miles of territory from France for $15 million (equivalent to about $300 million today), doubling the size of the United States.

In 2024, with Donald Trump re-elected as U.S. President, military leaders have publicly acknowledged China's rapid military advancements. Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, stated that China's approach toward Taiwan has escalated from a "boiling frog" strategy to a "rapid boil."

When asked if the U.S. could prevail in a conflict, Paparo candidly responded:

“First, I will tell you with complete sincerity — of heart, mind, and soul — thatthe United States would prevail in a conflict, as things stand now, with the force we currently have. We have some key advantages: undersea, space, counterspace, and the ability to project force from the surface up to the Kármán line. I’m confident in our ability to prevail by bringing all of our existing tools to bear.

But the trajectory — across nearly every significant element of force — is not good. The People’s Republic of China is building two submarines per year; the United States builds 1.4. The PRC is producing six surface combatants per year; the U.S. is building 1.8. China manufactures about 120 fighter aircrafts annually; we’re producing roughly 90.”


Paparo's remarks suggest that the U.S. is falling behind China in military preparedness. Consequently, the U.S. appears to be leveraging economic tools, such as tariffs, to compensate for its military disadvantages. Taiwan, heavily reliant on exports to both the U.S. and China, finds itself particularly vulnerable.



Tariffs as Strategic Weapons

The Trump administration's strategy has been unfolding. In March, TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) announced a $100 billion investment in the U.S., with Chairman C.C. Wei standing beside President Trump at the White House. This move sparked concerns in Taiwan about losing its "Silicon Shield."

On April 2, President Trump announced tariffs on various countries, including a 32% tariff on Taiwanese goods. This decision prompted intense scrutiny of President Lai Ching-te's administration, with opposition parties questioning its response. The government pledged to protect national interests and introduced measures to mitigate the tariff's impact.

By May, Taiwan's Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics reported that while the first half of 2025 saw a 5.35% GDP growth, the second half is projected to slow to 1% due to the tariffs. Standard & Poor's predicted that if the 32% tariff remains, Taiwan's annual GDP growth could drop to 1.1% in both 2025 and 2026.

Some hoped that President Trump's unpredictable nature might lead to a reversal. However, on June 2, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Lutnick firmly stated that the tariffs would not be lifted.

This aligns with the core message of "War by Other Means": economic tools are now integral to national security strategies. The U.S. is unlikely to abandon tariffs, as they serve to offset a decreasing military advantage .



Legal Challenges and Political Resilience

On May 28, a U.S. Court of International Trade ruling declared the Trump administration's tariffs illegal, following lawsuits from five small businesses and twelve state governments. They argued that invoking the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs was unlawful, as trade deficits do not constitute an "unusual and extraordinary threat."

The court sided with the plaintiffs, leading to widespread media coverage and temporary relief in Taiwan. However, the Trump administration quickly condemned the ruling, accusing the judiciary of overreach and undermining presidential authority. Within 24 hours, the administration appealed, and on May 29, a federal appellate court stayed the original ruling, allowing the tariffs to continue pending further debate.

Even if deemed illegal, the Trump administration views tariffs as vital to national security and is unlikely to relent.



Turning Uncertainty into Opportunity

For Taiwan to succeed, it requires leadership, businesses, and citizens capable of

withstanding uncertainty. As Sachio Semmoto advised, challenges must be confronted directly. It's time to reassess Taiwan's trade dependencies and diversify its economic strategies. Just as in warfare, a variety of tools is essential to navigate and stabilize in uncertain times.
​